Bastings says USDA numbers may need an asterisk


This morning’s spring wheat production forecast from USDA came in fairly close to expectations, while the government’s durum number was below the average trade guess.

The Agriculture Department is forecasting this year’s U.S. spring wheat production at 550.7 million bushels, very close to the average trade guess of 551. Durum production is forecast at 64 million bushels, below the average trade guess of 70 million bushels.

Brian Bastings with Advance Trading says the question now is – what is the actual total going to be – particularly as it relates to harvested acreage?

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Looking at the balance sheet, Bastings says the durum situation is quite tight.

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Adding to the supply concerns are serious production challenges in Canada. Bastings points out that USDA lowered its Canadian wheat crop forecast by 3.5 million tons compared to last month – down to 21.5 million metric tons.


Following the June 30th Acreage Report, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said it would collect updated information on 2011 acres planted to corn, soybeans, durum and other spring wheat in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota.