USDA World Supply And Demand Numbers Bearish

USDA released their February World Agricultural Supply and Demand numbers Tuesday morning to little fanfare as analysts expected only small changes across the board.  While that was largely true, carryout numbers of all three grains slightly exceeded analysts pre-report estimates:

  Feb USDA Report Pre Report Estimate Range of Estimates January USDA Estimate
Corn 1.837 bbu 1.815 bbu 17.52-1.947 bbu 1.802 bbu
Soybeans 450 mbu 449 mbu 425-491 mbu 440 mbu
Wheat 966 mbu 949 mbu 930-975 mbu 941 mbu

Global stocks of all three major grain categories increased as well.  Notably, USDA did not change their Brazilian soybean production estimate leaving it steady at 100 mmt for the 2015-2016 season.  Analysts were looking for a small decrease.  Argentinean soybean production was increased by 1.5 mmt to 58.5 mmt.