OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include
higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised reflecting a 75-million bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018/19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a lower import forecast for China. Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production forecasts are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. With soybean use unchanged, 2019/20 ending stocks are projected at 1,045 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018/19 projection. Other changes for 2018/19 include increased soybean meal imports and exports, reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks.
The 2019/20 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.25 per bushel, up 15 cents reflecting the impact of higher corn prices. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. The 2019/20 global soybean supply and use projections include lower production and stocks compared to last month. Global production is down 0.3 million tons to 355.4 million due to lower crops for Ukraine and Zambia. The 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons mainly reflecting lower carrying due to revisions to 2018/19 balance sheets. Beginning stocks for 2019/20 are reduced for Argentina and China offsetting higher stocks for the United States. For Argentina, stocks are lowered on a 1.5-million-ton increase to exports to 7.8 million for 2018/19 based on the recent pace of shipments. Beginning stocks are lowered for China due to a 1-million-ton decrease to imports to 85 million for 2018/19.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning
stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports,
and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018/19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness. Corn production for 2019/20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16.
Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some
plantings and reduce yield prospects. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28,
which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. With sharply
lower supplies, use is projected to decline 425 million bushels to 14.3 billion, based on
reductions to feed and residual use and exports. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel.
This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade
and lower stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn production is raised on increased area with higher prices. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and
yield with planting delays in Ontario. Russia corn production is higher based on government
data indicating larger-than-expected planted area. Barley production is lowered for the EU
reflecting a reduction for Spain. For 2018/19, Brazil corn production is raised based on the
latest government statistics.
WHEAT: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased
2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million
with an increase to Hard Red Winter more than offsetting decreases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter. Total wheat production is now forecast at 1,903 million bushels, up 5.8 million bushels from the May forecast. Exports for 2019/20 are unchanged at 900 million bushels but feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 140 million on reduced projected corn supplies. Ending stocks are lowered 69 million bushels to 1,072 million, and the season-average farm price is raised $0.40 per bushel to $5.10. The price increase reflects sharply higher wheat futures prices and reduced 2019/20 corn supplies.
World 2019/20 wheat supplies are raised 4.9 million tons on a 1.6-million-ton increase in
beginning stocks and a 3.3-million-ton increase in global production. India’s wheat crop is
raised 1.2 million tons on updated government data. Production in Russia and Ukraine are
each raised 1.0 million tons reflecting favorable weather to date. Projected 2019/20 global
trade is expanded 0.8 million tons with a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million ton increase for Ukraine, both due to larger crops. Russian exports are now projected at 37.0 million tons and Ukraine exports are projected at a record 19.5 million. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for EU exports with greater competition from Black Sea origins. Projected 2019/20 world consumption is raised 3.6 million tons on both higher food and feed and residual use. With supplies rising more than use, ending stocks are projected up 1.3 million tons to a record 294.3 million