October WASDE Expected Bullish

October report could pull lower estimates of new-crop ending corn and soybean stock

Usually around this time fields are flooded with combines and trucks hauling grain to the bin. In a typical year, roughly one third of the crop would be in the bin. Of course, bringing depressed market prices. This year has been far from a normal year.

Another out-of-the-norm this year are the USDA’s monthly WASDE reports. The October  WASDE report will be released on the 10th and based on lower-than expected corn and soybean stocks in the September report, this report could pull lower estimates of new-crop ending corn and soybean stocks. 

Steve Nicholson with Rabo Agrifinace says past reports have been overlooked due to the perception difference between the USDA and what people are really seeing in the field. In this report, Nicholson expects to see the convergence between the two.  Although he does not expect to really know what is out there until the month of January. 

“As we look at this report obviously [Soybean] yield is one of the most important numbers, when I look at corn I’m back to looking at harvested acres. In my view, if that number gets adjusted it will probably be adjusted down. It’s going to make that final production number a little bit smaller, which will get the market’s attention, obviously.”

The 2019-20 Dow Jones’ survey expects a corn crop estimate of  13.6 billion bushels. The survey also expects a drop in the soybean crop to 3.571 billion bushels.