WHEAT: The 2020/21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month but
there are offsetting by-class changes for wheat exports. The projected season-average farm
price remains at $4.50 per bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater
exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised 3.3 million tons to 1,070.3 million, mostly on
higher production in Australia and Canada more than offsetting a smaller crop in Argentina.
Australia’s production is raised 2.5 million tons to 28.5 million, mainly based on the ABARES
production forecast issued September 7. Canada’s production is increased 2.0 million tons
to 36.0 million, primarily on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 31. This is the
second and third-highest wheat production on record for Canada and Australia, respectively.
Argentina’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million on continued dry conditions
and possible frost damage. On net, global 2020/21 production is raised 4.5 million tons to a
record high 770.5 million.
World consumption is increased 0.8 million tons to 750.9 million, primarily on higher feed and
residual usage for Australia and Canada. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.5 million
tons to 189.4 million on higher exports for Australia and Canada. The largest import change
this month is for China, where imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million on an early
strong pace of U.S. sales and shipments to China and increased exportable supplies from
Australia and Canada. If realized, these would be the largest China wheat imports since
1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are increased 2.6 million tons to 319.4
million to a new record, with China and India accounting for 51 and 10 percent of the total,
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, lower
corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast
at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and
reduction in harvested area. Corn supplies are reduced from last month, as a smaller crop
more than offsets greater beginning stocks mostly due to lower estimated exports for
2019/20. Corn used for ethanol for 2020/21 is lowered 100 million bushels based on the
continued slow recovery in motor gasoline demand as a result of COVID-19. Exports are
raised 100 million bushels reflecting reduced supplies in competitor countries. With supply
falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 253 million bushels from last month.
The corn price is raised 40 cents to $3.50 per bushel.
This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, with fractionally
higher trade and lower stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly
reflecting a reduction for Romania. Ukraine corn production is down, as acute short-term
drought across much of the primary growing areas lowered corn yield prospects after a
favorable start to the summer growing season. Corn production is raised for Brazil, as high
domestic prices are expected to support an expansion in area. Corn production is also
increased for India and Nigeria. Barley production is raised for Russia, the EU, and
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include barley export increases for
Russia and Australia. Corn exports are raised for the United States, Brazil, and Mexico.
Corn imports are raised for Venezuela. China’s corn feed and residual use for 2019/20 and
2020/21 is raised from last month, based on observed soybean meal equivalent protein
consumption and current corn prices. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower relative to last
month, as increases for India and Nigeria are more than offset by a decline for China.
RICE: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for lower beginning stocks, with
increased production, imports, and total use. The August 21 NASS Rice Stocks report
reduced 2020/21 beginning stocks by 2.0 million cwt. Imports for 2020/21 are raised 0.8
million cwt to 36.8 million on expectations of continued strong demand for combined
medium- and short-grain varieties. In the September Crop Production report, NASS raised
the 2020/21 rice crop by 6.9 million cwt to 225.0 million on increased harvested area. The
average all rice yield is down 71 pounds per acre to 7,529 pounds. Long grain production is
raised 9.8 million cwt to 168.9 million, and combined medium- and short-grain production is
cut 3.0 million cwt to 56.0 million. With the increased supplies, domestic and residual use
and exports are each raised 2.0 million cwt, all long grain. All rice ending stocks are
increased by 1.6 million cwt to 45.9 million and the season-average farm price is dropped
$0.10 per cwt to $12.60.
Foreign 2020/21 rice supplies are lowered fractionally with several, mostly offsetting,
production changes led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for India and a 1.4-million-ton reduction
for Thailand. The India change is based on updated government statistics, and Thailand’s
smaller crop reflects limited water supplies in irrigated production areas. Global exports are
up fractionally led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for India that is offset by a 1.0-million-ton
decrease for Thailand; both changes are based on each country’s production revisions. With
supplies down and global utilization virtually unchanged, global ending stocks are lowered
0.4 million tons to 184.8 million but remain record large.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2020/21 include lower beginning
stocks, production, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect increases in exports
and crush for 2019/20. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 112
million on a lower yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre. Yield is down 1.4 bushels per acre
from the August forecast. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are
projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month. Other changes this
month include higher peanut and lower cottonseed production.
Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2020/21. The U.S. season-average
soybean price is forecast at $9.25 per bushel, up 90 cents from last month. The soybean
meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is
32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents.
The 2020/21 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production,
exports, and ending stocks. Higher foreign production of soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts,
and rapeseed is partly offset by lower sunflowerseed. Soybean production is raised for
Brazil, Canada, and India, and lowered for Ukraine. Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean crop is raised
2 million tons to 133 million, mainly on increased area as producers face stronger prices and
competitive exchange rates ahead of planting. Brazil’s production for 2013/14 to 2018/19
also reflects revisions by Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Soybean production
forecasts for Canada and India are raised on recent government data and planting progress
reports. Ukraine’s soybean production is lowered due to low rainfall throughout August.
Global soybean exports are raised 0.9 million tons to 166.3 million, with higher exports for
Brazil and lower exports for Ukraine based on available supplies. Crush is reduced for
Argentina in line with the prior year’s reduction. Global ending stocks are reduced 1.8 million
tons to 93.6 million as lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher foreign stocks, particularly
for Argentina and Brazil.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar production for 2020/21 is increased by 27,095 short tons, raw value
(STRV) to 9.292 million. Cane sugar production in Texas is increased by 60,984 STRV to
141,984 based on processor reporting. Projected cane sugar production in Louisiana and
Florida are unchanged from last month. Beet sugar production is decreased 33,889 STRV to
5.165 million on a decrease in the NASS-forecast national sugarbeet yield.
The Secretary of Agriculture increased the 2019/20 raw sugar TRQ by 100,000 STRV in
early September and extended the period that the TRQ raw sugar can enter through October
31. Of this amount, it is estimated that 11,814 STRV will enter in September of 2019/20 and
66,139 STRV will enter in October of 2020/21. The 2019/20 raw sugar TRQ shortfall is
increased by 22,046 STRV to 83,046. FTA sugar for 2019/20 is increased by 6,931 STRV
but reduced by the same amount for 2020/21 because sugar allocated to Canada for the
2020 calendar year entered the United States earlier in 2019/20 than forecast last month.
On the basis of pace, high-tier tariff imports for 2019/20 are increased by 30,000 STRV but
imports from Mexico are reduced by 12,766 STRV. For 2020/21, imports from Mexico are
projected at 888,150 STRV, a decrease of 190,625 from last month and high-tier tariff
imports are unchanged at 50,000 STRV.
Deliveries for human consumption for 2019/20 are increased by 100,000 STRV to 12,150
million as the pattern of deliveries to end users has stabilized. Deliveries for 2020/21
correspondingly are increased by 25,000 STRV to 12,150 million. Ending stocks for 2019/20
are estimated at 1.745 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent. Ending
stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 1.659 STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5
Mexico sugar supply and use for 2019/20 has small changes for imports of sugar for
consumption, a small decrease for exports, and increased deliveries for the IMMEX program.
These changes are made on the basis of the pace to date. The net result is to increase
ending stocks by 4,926 metric tons (MT). High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) deliveries for
2019/20 are reduced by 60,000 MT, dry weight, to 1.410 million on pace. For 2019/20, raw
sugar exports to the United States are estimated at 758,113 MT and refinada exports are
estimated at 424,765 MT. For 2020/21 total exports are increased to match the increase in
beginning stocks. Exports to the United States are reduced to 760,110 MT on calculated
U.S. Needs as set out in the AD/CVD Suspension Agreements. Exports to third-country
destinations are residually increased to 742,053 MT. Projected deliveries of HFCS are
unchanged at 1.470 million MT, dry weight.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry
production is lowered from last month as lower pork and broiler production more than offsets
higher beef and turkey production. Beef production is raised from the previous month on
higher second-half cattle slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on the current
pace of slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is reduced on recent
hatchery data while turkey production is raised slightly. The 2020 egg production forecast is
raised on increased lay rates. For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced
from the previous month on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef
production is reduced from last month on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter and
lighter carcass weights. Pork production is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights.
The broiler production forecast is reduced on slower expected growth as the industry adjusts
to higher feed costs. The turkey production forecast is unchanged.
The 2020 beef import forecast is raised on continued firm import demand for processing
grade beef, while the beef export forecast is unchanged. No change is made to the 2021
beef trade forecasts. The 2020 and 2021 pork export forecasts are unchanged as continued
demand strength from China offsets weaker demand in other key markets. The 2020 and
2021 broiler, turkey, and egg export forecasts are unchanged from last month.
The cattle price forecast for 2020 is unchanged from last month while the 2021 cattle price
forecast is raised on lower production. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2020 on recent
price strength but are unchanged for 2021. The 2020 broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts
are raised on recent price strength. For 2021, broiler price forecasts are raised on lower
forecast production while no changes are made to the turkey and egg price forecasts.
The milk production forecast for 2020 is raised from last month on higher expected growth in
milk per cow. For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is lowered, primarily on recent trade
data and the expectation of slower butterfat imports. The fat basis export forecast is raised
on stronger global import demand for cheese, butter, and whey products. The skim-solids
basis import forecast is unchanged from the previous month, while the export forecast is
raised on expectations of robust exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey products.
Cheese, butter, and whey price forecasts are reduced from last month, but the forecast for
NDM is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on lower cheese and whey price
forecasts, while the Class IV price forecast is reduced on the lower butter price forecast. The
all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.75 per cwt.
For 2021, the milk production forecast is raised on stronger anticipated growth in milk per
cow. The fat basis import forecast is reduced from the previous month primarily on lower
expected imports of cheese and other dairy products, while the fat basis export forecast is
raised on anticipated firm global demand for U.S. butter. The skim-solids basis import
forecast is raised slightly, but the export forecast is raised on continued strong international
demand for skim milk powder and whey products. Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and
whey are lowered while the nonfat dry milk forecast is unchanged. The Class III price
forecast is reduced on lower cheese and whey price forecasts. The Class IV price forecast is
reduced on the lower butter price forecast. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $17.00
per cwt for 2021.
COTTON: The 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher beginning stocks
relative to last month but lower production, mill use, exports, and ending stocks. Production
is lowered 1.0 million bales to 17.1 million, with a lower projection for every region. Mill use
is projected 200,000 bales lower this month, but compared with its revised 2019/20 level is
still expected to rise 16 percent. Exports and ending stocks are 400,000 bales lower,
reflecting reduced U.S. supply and stronger foreign competition. Ending stocks in 2020/21
are projected at 7.2 million bales, equivalent to 42 percent of use. The season-average price
for upland cotton is forecast at 59 cents per pound, unchanged from the previous month.
The 2020/21 world cotton projections include lower beginning stocks, production,
consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Beginning stocks are lowered in
India, more than offsetting increases for China and Brazil. Production is higher in China,
India, and Australia, but lower in the United States, Pakistan, and Turkey. Consumption is
lower in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. World trade is slightly higher, with increases
for Australia, Brazil, and India offsetting lower U.S. exports. Imports are forecast higher for
Pakistan and Turkey, but lower for Vietnam. World ending stocks of cotton in 2020/21 are
projected at 103.8 million bales, 1.1 million lower than in August, and 4.4 million higher than in 2019/20.
WHEAT: The 2020/21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month but