Global grain stocks will likely be about 1.5 percent higher than last year, reversing the downward trend over the prior few years. Despite the rise in global supplies, USDA forecasts higher corn, wheat, and barley prices than in the 2019-2020 marketing year. The average corn price is projected at four dollars a bushel, compared to $3.85 the prior year. The average wheat price is forecast at $4.80 a bushel, up from $4.60 in the previous marketing year. The average barley price is projected to be $4.75 a bushel, up five cents a bushel from last year.
Feed, food, and export markets for corn are all promising for 2021. U.S. corn exports were up 49 percent in 2020 to 67.3 million metric tons, a huge boon to marketers and growers. On the corn import side, demand by the top seven importers was up nine percent this year, compared to a decline in 2019. Imports of corn jumped by 71 percent, which the Capital Press article says, “Definitely tells the story.”
China also played a big role in wheat markets, with their imports up 48.7 percent. Demand for wheat by the five biggest importers was up five percent this year, compared to a two percent increase in 2019.