February USDA WASDE Report Surprises Bullish Traders

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Tuesday lowered ending stocks for corn and soybean with boosts in export sales for both crops.

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were pegged at 1.502 billion bushels (bb), down 50 million bushels (mb) from last month’s estimate and coinciding with a 50 mb bump in corn exports. Soybean ending stocks were lowered 20 mb by USDA to 120 mb, also tied to a 20 mb increase in exports.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s new-crop U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat. Hultman pegged the world ending stocks estimates as bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and somewhat bullish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Among the biggest moves in the report for corn was increasing China’s corn imports by 6.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 24 mmt.

USDA held pat on yield for the 2020-21 corn crop at 172 bushels per acre (bpa) and maintained production at 14.182 bb.

USDA’s main change in corn numbers for February was a 50 mb bump in exports, bringing exports to 2.6 bb. That lowered ending stocks by 50 mb to 1.502 bb.

Total use was increased by that 50 mb level to 14.625 bb. That brings the stocks-to-use ratio for the 2020-21 corn crop at 10.2%, down from 10.6% in last month’s report.

The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was increased 10 cents a bushel to $4.30 a bushel.

Globally, USDA increased production slightly to 1,134.05 mmt. USDA also increased exports by 2.07 mmt. Global stocks were increased 2.7 mmt to 286.53 mmt.

USDA held firm on Brazilian corn production at 109 mmt and maintained Argentina production at 47.5 mmt as well.

USDA also raised China’s corn imports to 24 mmt, up from 17.5 mmt last month.

SOYBEANS

USDA lowered soybean ending stocks to 120 mb, a 20 mb decline from last month and within 1 bushel of the average pre-report estimate. The agency left the supply side unchanged. As for demand, the only change was in the export estimate, which USDA bumped up 20 mb to 2.250 bb. USDA says the change reflects record marketing-year exports through January as well as a slow start to Brazil’s export season.

The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $11.15 per bushel.

Globally, soybean ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop year came in at 83.36 mmt, a change that was just shy of 1 mmt from last month. USDA left Brazil and Argentina production unchanged at 133 mmt and 48 mmt, respectively. China’s import estimate was also left unchanged at 100 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA left U.S. 2020-21 wheat production unchanged from the January report, at 1.826 bb and an average of 49.7 bpa. The agency also left wheat demand and use totally unchanged, with domestic ending stocks still sitting at 836 mb.

Farm gate prices were boosted slightly to $5.00 per bushel, up 15 cents from January.

In contrast, USDA dropped global wheat ending stocks 8.97 mmt to 304.22 mmt, well below analyst’s pre-report expectations. That’s despite a slight increase in global production, up 0.8 mmt to 773.44 mmt, based largely on higher production in Kazakhstan, which made up for lowered production in Pakistan and Argentina. Those higher supplies were offset by a 9.78 mmt increase in domestic use, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China and India, as well as a 1.06 mmt increase in exports.