Morning Market Report- 6/11/21- Grains Start Lower in Overnight Trade

In overnight trade, all grains are lower amid more hot and dry weather in the forecast. There is a severe thunderstorm watch with locally heavy rains moving eastward across the Dakotas and southern Manitoba, while the rest of Friday morning’s weather map is dry. Eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas have chances for rain later Friday, but that is about it for the rest of the seven-day period, while temperatures remain hot in the western Corn Belt. Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed drought conditions getting worse in the northern Corn Belt and, given the forecast, that is likely to continue for at least the next ten days.

In central Brazil, the forecast remains chronically dry and there is a good chance USDA’s new crop estimate of 98.5 million metric tons (mmt) for Brazil will be a brief stepping stone to another lower estimate in July. Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, estimated 96.4 mmt Thursday and even that may prove too high. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 38% of the corn crop was harvested, down from the five-year average of 45% for this time of year.

On China’s Dalian exchange, September corn was up 0.9%, July soybeans were up 0.5%, September soybean meal was up 0.6% and September soybean oil was down 0.2%. July common wheat on China’s Zhengzhou exchange was unchanged. August Malaysian palm oil is trading down 4.1%.

USDA still has not had a daily export sale announcement in June and the next chance will come at 8 a.m. CDT.

he livestock complex was able to close higher in most futures contracts. It was another day of a fairly tight trading range in live cattle. Most of the attention of traders may have been turned toward the projections on the WASDE report Thursday for both grain and beef. Hog futures were under pressure some of the day, but the resiliency of the market continues to amaze participants. It is difficult to make a bearish case at the present time as cash continues to march higher as packers remain aggressive with the National Direct Afternoon report showing price up $4.72. Cutouts declined $0.33, but the fluctuation of cutout prices does not seem to have much impact on the need for packer to procure hogs to supply incredible demand.

Farm and Ranch Director Jesse Allen has our latest update: