FBN, Farmers Business Network, just released their 2022 Acreage Report in advance of USDA’s June 30 acreage report. The report estimates farmers have planted more corn and less beans than previously anticipated.
Kevin McNew, Chief Economist at Farmers Business Network, says the estimates are drawn from a unique data source—a survey of FBN’s farmer members.
“FBN is really empowering our farmers by taking data and collectively sharing that data back for critical decisions. During June we send out an electronic survey and that survey data comes back to us with things about what they planted this year and what they planted last year. We have a wide swath of data across 40 states covering 4.2 million acres to help farmers make marketing decisions ahead of USDA acreage report on June 30.”
McNew explains the results from the FBN Annual June Acreage report.
“Kind of the theme we saw in this survey from our farmers was that they throttled back a little bit on their bean plantings and they increased a little bit more on their corn planting. So, our corn number is a little higher than trade. We are getting a 90.4 million acre reading which is up 900,000 acres from March’s estimate from USDA, and a little bit above trade estimates going into the report. And on soybeans were at only 89 million acres, that’s off quite a bit from the 91 million acre number from USDA and also quite a bit below the average trade guess.”
The report includes nine principal crops: corn, soybeans, sorghum, upland cotton, rice, winter wheat, non-durum spring wheat and durum wheat, and provides insights based on FBN’s analysis.
“Corn, our view is mostly that we’re neutral, even though the corn acreage number is a little higher than what the trade is guessing. I think there’s a backdrop of really strong demand, the problems that are brewing in Eastern Europe obviously are going to be with us for some time. So, we don’t think anything in this June acreage report really derails the story that we’ve been trading really for the last year. which is inflationary pressures and high prices. And so, seeing some shifting and acres, Eastern Corn Belt drawing down a little bit from their bean intentions in March, maybe getting a little more friendly towards corn. Some of that could be supply chain related, we know glyphosate availability was a struggle for a lot of farmers, and so that could be it as well, and also problems in the northern plains where farmers had a really tough time getting anything in the ground.”
He says overall, the market view is bullish for soybeans.
“I think there’s a couple of things. One is soybeans are getting more of a direct link to the energy sector because of what’s going on and renewable diesel, and so that’s a good thing because as renewable diesel plants come online in the next two to three years, it’s just really formulating a really strong demand pulse domestically. And then secondly, you know, we’re still struggling with this La Nina that will not die away. This is the third year now in a row, really, of La Nina persisting, and that could spell problems for soybeans in particular, if and when the heat and dryness returns more to the heart of the grain belt in the latter half of the summer so I think that’s something we’re watching actively.”
There was much talk about tight spring wheat supplies earlier in the year. McNew adds it appears farmers will plant a little more acres of spring wheat than previously anticipated.
“In March, USDA said U.S. farmers have planted about 11.2 million acres of spring wheat. Our members said in this latest poll, they’ll go about 11.4 million. And so, we do see a little bit of an increase in spring wheat acres again, probably a reflection of better prices that happened in the last few months, as a result of run up in wheat values.”
The annual report is free for all farmers on the FBN website at https://www.fbn.com.