USDA’s latest WASDE report incorporates data from the June 30 Acreage Report, but offers little change, for now. American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Shelby Myers explains.
“What was most surprising was how lackluster, almost, the report was. It brought in estimates from the June 30 Acreage Report which updated U.S. acre estimates from what farmers said their intended planted acres were going to be in March to what they actually planted throughout the spring. And yet the surprising thing is some of the unchanged yields for corn and soybeans, but a slight increase for wheat yields. We do see widespread drought conditions that may or may not influence how those yields change over the next couple of weeks.”
USDA made slight changes for larger domestic supplies of corn and wheat, but a slightly lower supply of soybeans, aligning with the June 30 Acreage Report.
“So, for corn, we do see an increase to ending stocks for the upcoming year, while, soybeans, we’re going to see a decrease in production because of lower acreage. But I think it’s important to note for corn and soybeans, USDA still has just over four million acres of corn and over 15 million acres of soybeans that need to be re-surveyed from the June 30 acreage report that could continue to influence the numbers going forward. We don’t actually have all the information just yet.”
Myers adds that weather conditions over the next few weeks will be key.
“For the next couple of weeks, certainly the average farm price is going to play into this. USDA lowered the average farm price for corn and wheat due to those larger supplies but also lowered the farm price for soybeans due to lower production. So, we’re going to keep an eye on farm prices, and what’s really going to play into that is how weather changes over the next couple of weeks.”