Industry economists expect the harvest of a large soybean crop in Brazil in the next 30 to 45 days. AgResource predicts USDA and others will be forced to raise Brazilian soybean production estimates by one million to three million tons, or 37 million to 110 million bushels. A crop of at least 150 million tons versus 129.5 million last year is guaranteed, according to their research.
AgResource’s final yield estimate in Mato Grosso, by far the country’s largest producing state, is 60.3 bushels per acre after revisiting possible harvest losses and disease pressure. This is eight bushels per acre more than Brazil’s CONAB current forecast. There will be yield loss in the far south of Brazil, but yield gains in Mato Grosso and surrounding states will more than offset any yield hit. Harvest losses will likely result from new incurable diseases.
But there is very little doubt a massive Brazilian soybean crop will be available to the global marketplace in the coming weeks.