New data from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows farm sector debt tied to real estate is expected to be at a record high of $375.9 billion in 2023.
Farm sector real estate debt has been increasing continuously since 2009 and is expected to reach an amount that is 87.5 percent higher in 2023 compared with 2009 in inflation-adjusted dollars. Real estate debt now far outpaces debt that is not secured by a mortgage. Historically, real estate debt and non-real estate debt have trended similarly, but they have diverged in recent years. Non-real estate debt showed an 11.9-percent year-to-year increase in 2014 in inflation-adjusted dollars but declined after 2017.
Meanwhile, there has been a continuous increase in real estate debt since 2009. In 2023, real estate debt is expected to be 33.0 percent higher than the ten-year average, while non-real estate debt is expected to be 10.2 percent lower than the ten-year average.