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Drought Threatening Brazilian Coffee Crop

As harvest wraps up for this year’s Brazilian coffee crop, drought is already threatening the 2025 harvest. The market is watching how the dry conditions, the worst drought in more than seventy years there, will affect the coffee plants.

Prices are already at a 13-year high when adjusted for inflation, according to the International Coffee Organization. In August, the organization’s Composite Indicator Price, which combines the price of several types of green coffee beans, averaged $2.38 per pound, up nearly 55% from the same month a year ago. In part, prices are rising because of higher demand, particularly in Asia.

But weather is also driving increases. Drought, frost and fire have damaged as much as one-fifth of arabica coffee producers’ growing areas in Brazil, according to CoBank. AP reports Vietnam, the world’s second largest coffee producer, is also experiencing heat and drought which could impact the crop there.

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