(WASHINGTON D.C.) — Minimal changes were seen Tuesday as USDA released the February 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
The U.S. balance sheets for corn and soybeans were left unchanged this month while the 2024/25 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic use that leads to lower ending stocks. The projected season-average farm price for corn was raised 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively. The season-average farm price for wheat was unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
We did see some changes on the global side of the equation. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.492 billion. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. USDA lowered Argentina’s corn production by 1 million metric tons (MMT) to 50.0 MMT while they lowered soybean production 3 MMT down to 49.0 MMT. Brazil’s corn crop was reduced 1 MMT down to 126.0 MMT while their soybean crop was left unchanged. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. For Brazil, the corn production forecast is reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West lowers yield prospects.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies and higher consumption but lower trade and ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million, primarily on higher production for Kazakhstan and Argentina. Global consumption is increased 1.8 million tons to 803.7 million on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine. World trade declines 3.0 million tons to 209.0 million with export reductions for the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Global 2024/25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169.0 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields. Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.
View the full WASDE here: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report
Hear WASDE analysis with Arlan Suderman of StoneX below:
