Ethanol Poised for Success if Exports Sustain

With growing world ethanol demand and higher domestic blend rates, the ethanol industry is positioned for continued growth. However, political uncertainty clouds the outlook for international and domestic inclusion levels of biofuel blends. At home, the new administration’s Environmental Protection Agency will decide on pending Small Refinery Exemptions, establish the Renewable Volume Obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard, and implement low carbon fuel tax incentives such as the Clean Fuel Production Credit, known as 45Z.
Despite overall declines in agricultural trade, last year’s U.S. ethanol exports reached 1.91 billion gallons, surpassing the 2018 peak of 1.7 billion gallons. The anticipated increase of ethanol exports of more than 510 million gallons in 2024 over 2023 had a greater impact than the incremental increases in domestic use of higher-level ethanol blends. Annual ethanol exports could reach 2 billion gallons in 2025 and 2026.