The Economic Research Service issued its June Oil Crops Outlook that predicted higher soybean ending stocks for the month. A higher carryover raised the 2023-2024 U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast by 15 million bushels to 350 million bushels.
The increase in expected carryover stocks is due to a reduced 2022-2023 soybean export forecast from 2.01 billion bushels to two billion bushels on strong foreign competition. Despite an unchanged soybean crush volume in June, the higher extraction rates increased U.S. soybean meal supply. With higher supply and lower domestic demand, soybean meal exports for the 2022-2023 marketing year increased this month by 0.2 million short tons to 14 million short tons.
The 2023-2024 global soybean ending stocks are estimated higher this month at 123.3 million metric tons on increased carryover from 2022-2023 and reduced crush in Argentina. Reduced soybean meal supplies in Argentina are partially offset by Brazil’s higher soybean meal exports.