Global rice trade forecasts for both calendar year 2023 and 2024 are sharply lowered this month. USDA lowered the forecast in response to India’s July 20 immediate ban on further sales of select rice varieties, resulting in urgent buying by some importers and rapid Asian price increases.
The 2024 global export forecast is lowered 3.4 million tons to 52.9 million, with exports from India lowered 4.0 million tons to 19.0 million. Increased export forecasts for Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, and Vietnam partially offset the 2024 export reduction for India. For 2023, global exports are reduced 1.9 million tons to 53.8 million, with India’s export forecast reduced 2.0 million tons to 20.5 million. Import forecasts are lowered for several major importers in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa for both 2023 and 2024.
The 2023/24 production forecast in the U.S. rice market is raised 1 percent to 203.6 million hundredweight, based on a higher yield of 7,700 pounds per acre.