USDA Releases August Oil Crops Outlook

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service published its first survey-based forecast of the 2023/24 U.S. soybean yield this month. At 50.9 bushels per acre, the current soybean yield forecast is down 1.1 bushels per acre from last month. The soybean crush forecast is unchanged at 2.3 billion bushels, supported by the greater demand for soybean oil and domestic soybean crush capacity expansion. A waning supply of canola oil and drought conditions in Canada and the United States have elevated prices for both old and new crop soybean oil. The average soybean oil price is forecast at 62.0 cents per pound, up 2.0 cents from last month but down from a revised 2022/23 price of 65.0 cents per pound. Soybean oil used for biofuels production supports strong domestic demand. In contrast, domestic soybean meal demand is lower than expected as livestock growth is slower than anticipated. USDA lowered the forecast for domestic soybean meal demand by .25 million short tons to 39.73 million short tons.