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FAPRI Releases U.S. Baseline Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri released its annual U.S. Baseline Outlook report. It includes projections for agricultural and biofuel markets and helps in evaluating alternative scenarios for agricultural policy.

“Projected prices for most crops, poultry, and dairy products all retreat in 2023 from recent peaks, and so do some production expenses,” says FAPRI Director Pat Westhoff.

Among the findings, the report says if weather conditions allow crop yields to return to trend-line levels in 2023, prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and many other crops are likely to fall. Higher fertilizer, fuel, and feed costs contributed to a very sharp increase in farm production costs last year, but a smaller increase is projected in 2023.

Lower prices in some inputs will likely bring down production costs in 2024 and 2025. Hog, poultry, and dairy prices will fall, but beef prices will remain high.

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