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Weekly Ethanol Production for 9/29/2023

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending September 29, ethanol production was even with the prior week at 1.009 million b/d, equivalent to 42.38 million gallons daily. Output was 13.5% more than the same week last year and 5.3% above the five-year average for the week. The four-week average ethanol production rate ticked down 0.1% to 1.009 million b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.47 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks declined 0.7% to 21.9 million barrels. Yet, stocks were 0.9% more than the same week last year and 2.7% above the five-year average. Inventories thinned across all regions except the West Coast (PADD 5), including a 51-week low in the Midwest (PADD 2).

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, slumped 7.0% to 8.01 million b/d (122.85 bg annualized)—the smallest weekly volume since the start of 2023. Demand was 15.3% less than a year ago and 13.5% below the five-year average.

However, refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol again moved marginally higher to 893,000 b/d, equivalent to 13.69 bg annualized. Net inputs were 0.3% less than the same week last year and 0.1% above the five-year average.

Ethanol exports were estimated at 122,000 b/d (5.1 million gallons/day), a 58.4% increase over the prior week. There were zero imports of ethanol recorded for the second consecutive week.

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