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Brazil Harvest Prediction Dropping as Heat Dome Moves In

Corn and soybean projects in Brazil keep falling. Dr. Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor talks about some of the most recent predictions.

He says, “Conab came out and lowered the soybean estimate for Brazil two-and-a-half million tons to 146.8, and for corn, they lowered it .9 million tons to 112.7. Now, the soybeans in Brazil were 55 percent harvested as of late last week, and the harvest pace has slowed down. They’re now moving into some of the later-planted beans, and also, it’s been wet in northern Brazil, so it’s been slower a little bit. I left my Brazil soybean estimate at 145 (million metric tons). As a comparison, USDA is 155, so they’re very high.”

He says the second corn crop in Brazil is almost completely planted. Dr. Cordonnier says, “That crop was 93 percent planted as of late last week, and the situation is sort of okay, but it’s getting dry in south-central areas, and a new heat dome is developing over South Central Brazil. This is the third one of the growing season. Temperatures are going to get really hot – over 100 degrees – and that area had been drying out already, so now it’s going to get even drier going forward. An area to watch is the states of southern Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sau Paulo. Most of the corn right now is in vegetative development. If this heatwave lasts more than just a few days, I think it will have a negative impact on the safrinha corn.”

Prices are so low that some Brazilian farmers skipped the second corn crop and planted other commodities. He says, “Conab lowered the Safrinha corn acreage yesterday by 130,000 hectares (over 321,000 acres), and they think it’s going to go down 8.3 percent compared to last year. Now, this is contrary to what normally happens. Conab almost always finds more corn acres as the season progresses. Well, this year is just the reverse. They’re finding less, and I think they’ll find even fewer acres than this. I think you’re going to be down 10-11 percent. They have the area down eight percent. Prices are too low, and the farmers are opting to do other things like grain sorghum or sunflowers or cotton instead of safrinha corn.”

He says the states that produce 80 percent of the second corn crop are where the heat dome will settle.

Dr. Cordonnier says, “Mato Gross alone has about 42 percent of all the acres, and then Parana, 15 percent, Mato Grosso do Sul 13 percent, so it’s kind of concentrated in the south-central part of Brazil, and that’s where it’s going to get the hottest. And my concern is that this may be the start of the end of the rainy season.”

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Story courtesy of the NAFB News Service

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