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MU Releases New Baseline Food and Agricultural Outlook

Farm commodity prices have tumbled from the peak levels they rose to during spring 2022 — and new projections suggest that downward pressure on prices could continue throughout 2024 and beyond.

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri recently released its annual agricultural market baseline outlook. The outlook provides projections for agricultural and biofuel markets and serves as a point of reference for evaluating alternative scenarios for food and agricultural policy. Another key finding from the report is that net farm income is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2020. For consumers, food price inflation slowed in 2023, and FAPRI’s report suggests that this trend could continue in 2024.

The consumer price index for food is anticipated to increase 2.1 percent in 2024, with the lion’s share of the increase coming from food away from home. The annual report summarizes ten-year “baseline” projections for several economic indicators, and can be found on the FAPRI website.

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